Analysis on the market development trend of abamectin in China in recent years
Abamectin has good market condition and has large demand every year. Although abamectin market suffered from many twists and turns, the overall market situation has stepped into the right direction currently. However, the market situation is still full of conjecture in the future. Below is the market development situation of abamectin.
Analysis on the market situation of abamectin in China in recent years
Abamectin is a kind of biopesticide that has largest demand around the world. In China, after the growth spurt in 2007 and 2008, abamectin market became depressed from 2009 to 2011. During this time, abamectin manufacturers were generally short of full production and some of them even shut down. In the second quarter in 2012, abamectin market began to rebound and pesticide price began to rise obviously. Until June, 2012, the rising range had reached more than 40 percent. Especially after ointment has been forbidden to be used, the market demand for abamectin has continuously increased as well as the price has risen rapidly due to the understock of abamectin powder. Besides, the emamectin benzoate price will also continuously increase as well as may lead to product unavailable.
The market performance of abamectin is fluctuating between optimality and badness. Although the market situation is powerful and prosperous at present, the market prospect will also face many variables and changes.
Since foreign enterprises have seized Chinese market, such as the emergence of Coragen that produced by DuPont, flubendiamide that produced by Bayer, Foggo that produced by Syngenta and other varieties, the development space of abamectin has been greatly reduced. As the imported new varieties have long prevention time and good effect, they have become the preferred drugs in preventing rice leaf folder and striped rice borer for Chinese rice growers.
Insects have increased the resistance to abamectin as well as the product life cycle has been shortened. Due to the broad spectrum, high efficiency, low toxicity and high selectivity, abamectin has become very popular in preventing insect attack of rice, cotton, fruit tree, tobacco and other crops as well as has been used for a long time, which also has caused the increasing drug resistance of pests. Therefore, even if we continuously increase drug concentration, it is still unable to effectively kill rice stem borer, cabbage caterpillar, cotton bollworm and other pests. Meanwhile, as abamectin has high toxicity to fish and other aquatic organisms, it should be used on rice with 1-2g per mu so as to avoid causing damage. However, if users increase drug usage amount when the drug resistance occurs, it could pose a threat to aquatic organisms, thus abamectin may be forbidden in some crops.
As ointment has been forbidden to be used, the cost performance of abamectin will reduce. Abamectin was very expensive when it was firstly launched. However, since 2007 when ointment, the by-product, was begun to be used as technical material for preparing emulsifiable concentrate, abamectin started to become popular. In order to protect environment, ointment was forbidden in 2012. Currently, as enterprises have invested a lot on the equipment and technology for transforming ointment, the production cost of abamectin powder has increased by at least 5000 Yuan each ton, besides, the quoted price of abamectin powder that provided by factories has risen to 640-650 Yuan/kg, which has brought high pressure for the production of emamectin benzoate manufacturers. As a result, emamectin benzoate price has increased from 72,000 Yuan per ton in April last year to 845,000 Yuan per ton at present.
Due to substantial production expansion, it has caused periodic oversupply. Since abamectin has been popularized, there has been about 1300 abamectin products that registered by more than 400 enterprises, 28 provinces in China. Among them, there are about 14 technical material registration enterprises and 33 emamectin benzoate registration enterprises. At present, the annual capacity of abamectin has reached 2500 tons and the actual output has reached about 1800 tons. It is predicted that the domestic demand and export amount will reach about 2300 tons in recent two years. Therefore, the demand-supply gap of 500 tons needs to be inhibited by increasing price. Supply-demand imbalance can only lead to increasing price. However, the substantial production expansion will lead to the periodic oversupply of abamectin.
According to the above situation, experts have reminded pesticide manufacturers not bindly expand production. Once enterprises expand production substantially, it may lead to excess production capacity even if the export volume has increased, thus the market competition will become more intense. Abamectin will be difficult to survive in pesticide market under excess production capacity as well as when it is lack of variety innovation and technology innovation.